A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
